The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for president, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, is predicted to win the general election on February 25, 2023, according to a recent survey done by the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC), which is made up of 134 organizations.
The organisation predicted that Tinubu would win based on the study of the preferences of 19,365 people that its researcher polled in January at a briefing delivered by its Secretary-General, Taiwo Adeleye, in Lagos yesterday.
The NHRC survey found that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC’s presidential candidate, “has a tremendous lead and is on course to win the 2023 general elections.”
Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) are running head-to-head for the second spot, according to Adeleye’s analysis of the polls. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) finished in a distant fourth place, with the combined votes of all other candidates totaling a negligible amount.
The study found that 7,940 (41%), of those surveyed throughout the 774 local governments in the 36 states of the federation and Abuja, favoured the APC candidate, 5,035 (26%), the PDP’s Atiku, 4,067 (21%), the Labour Party’s Obi, and 1,743 (9%), the NNPPKwankwaso candidate.
1,162 (6%) of the respondents chose the candidates of the other parties as a whole.
Adeleye noted that the poll’s findings also indicated that Tinubu would win in 17 states (Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Cross River, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, and Gombe), garnering 25% of the votes from respondents in 14 other states (Imo, Ebonyi, CRS, Ed
Seven states, including Adamawa, Taraba, Sokoto, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta, are predicted to go to Atiku, his closest competitor.
Obi received seven states from the respondents. Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Benue, and Rivers are among them. In Abuja, he is also expected to triumph.
Kwankwaso was only elected to represent his native state of Kano, whereas the three front-runners are expected to compete for seats in Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi, Plateau, and Rivers.
The group explained the process it used to conduct the study, emphasizing that random sampling was used and that it took six months to complete.
The questionnaires, according to Adeleye, were available in pidgin and the three main Nigerian languages, Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa.
“From a socioeconomic perspective, religion, ethnicity, insecurity, inflation, rising poverty, and unemployment will be the deciding elements during the February 25th presidential elections,” it was revealed.
“Although party loyalty will not be as important as candidate integrity, political will, and track record. Moreover, the use of technology by INEC, social media, mobile communications, and other organizations would increase awareness and impact voter perceptions while reducing electoral violence and vote rigging.
They added that respondents from the North-west, North-east, and some North-central states indicated their willingness to vote based on party loyalty and religion, with APC enjoying more party loyalists within a Muslim-dominated population. The group noted that its deductions were based on careful consideration of the respondents’ views on religion, ethnicity, party loyalty, and the integrity of the candidates.
According to the NHRC, the Southwestern states are likely to vote based on historical factors that favor the APC presidential candidate, including the candidate’s status as a former governor of Lagos State with a broad network and consistent political activities since 1991, the APC’s grassroots campaign, the incumbency factor of the APC-controlled state governments in the South-west, party loyalty, and ethnicity, all of which will favor the APC.
It predicts that the Labour Party will have a resounding victory in the South-east due to ethnic and religious emotion, while states like Plateau in the North-Central could support similar views and cast significant numbers of votes for the Labour Party based on religion.
The PDP would retain a sizable representation in its traditional strongholds of the South and the two North-east states of Adamawa and Taraba, according to the organization, and would gain sizable percentages in other North-west and North-east states.